All Analyses
14 articles — sorted by date
Deutsche Wohnen: The Guaranteed Dividend With an Asset Kicker
A 6.5% coupon, legally enforceable, owed by an investment-grade debtor. The squeeze-out floor sits above the share price. The catch: Vonovia owns the clock.
Tatton Asset Management — The Wealth Manager That Owns No Wealth
ROIC 42.2%, 98.3% retention and a fee margin that rises instead of falling. Why the largest client loss in the company's history was a gain.
Heidelberg Materials: Defending the Capital Base, Not Growing It
Recalculated after the 2026 half-year report: ROIC 10.4% above WACC, EV/EBITDA 7.7x, fair value around €184. A cash-return stock, not a growth stock.
Foxtons Group: The Lettings Core Holds, the Valuation No Longer Does
Lettings is growing and the 24–26% M&A ROIC stands, but H1 2026 cuts the earnings base by 19%. Fair value £0.45, bear case at the share price: Hold.
The End of the Seat: Why SaaS Has to Move to Tokenised Pricing
Per-seat pricing is not dying quietly. What token, credit and outcome models mean for margins, valuation and capital allocation.
NAPCO Security: The Quiet Flywheel
A 57-year-old security hardware maker with the most capital-efficient model in its sector. The key is the distribution architecture, not the margin.
Five VMS Stocks, One Yardstick: Who Ends Up Owning the Cash Flow
Five compounders on one yardstick. H1 2026 flips two findings: Lumine is the cleanest offshoot, Topicus the second most expensive name after correction.
Asseco Poland: The Other Side of the Topicus Deal
What did Topicus buy into at Asseco via TSS? A core business earning 30% ROIC, of whose profit 47% belongs to minorities. Hold.
Topicus: An Excellent Company, but Not a Simple Stock
Operationally an exceptional software compounder. Since the Asseco deal, however, harder to read, harder to value and harder to buy with a margin of safety.
Lumine Group: The Quality Holds, the Discovery Discount Is Gone
Recurring revenue, niche markets, strong cash generation: the quality is not in dispute. The open question is the price.
Constellation Software: The Capital-Allocation Machine at Full Price
A ROIC spread of almost 13 percentage points and still no margin of safety. Quality yes, price no: why CSU is a Hold.
CHAPTERS Group: The Loss Is Accounting, the Price Is the Problem
HGB accounting forces a book loss while cash grows 64% a year. Still: watchlist, not a core position. At 20x EBITDA there is no margin of safety.
SiriusXM: The Expensively Bought Monopoly with the Asset-Light Wild Card
On the price it paid, SiriusXM barely earns its cost of capital; the core business earns 16.4% ROIC. Fair value $34–38 at a price of $26.36. Hold.
Liberty Global: The Malone flywheel now hinges on Ziggo
SOTP base case $15.75 per share at a $9.23 share price. It rests on management’s Ziggo deleveraging path, with a 20% safety haircut.